February 12, 2025 – In an unprecedented move, NASA has declared a planetary defense emergency after the probability of a “city-killer” asteroid striking Earth in 2032 surged to 2.3%, up from an initial 1.2%. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters (130–300 feet) wide — comparable to iconic structures like New York’s Statue of Liberty or London’s Big Ben — and is projected to pass dangerously close to Earth on December 22, 2032. If it collides, experts warn it could unleash energy equivalent to 15 megatons of TNT, dwarfing the destructive power of the Hiroshima nuclear bomb by 100 times.
The emergency declaration follows updated observations from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), which tracks near-Earth objects. Initial calculations in late 2024 placed the asteroid’s collision odds at 1.2%, but refined trajectory models now suggest a 1-in-43 chance of impact 19. While still low, this marks the highest risk level assigned to an asteroid in over a decade, prompting NASA to mobilize global space agencies and deploy the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) for urgent observations.
Key Details of the Asteroid Threat – City-killer
Discovered in December 2024 by a NASA-funded observatory in Chile, 2024 YR4 has been classified as a Level 3 hazard on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a rare designation indicating a “close encounter” requiring public and scientific attention 11. The asteroid’s “risk corridor” spans a vast swath of the globe, including the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. A direct hit could cause catastrophic blast damage within a 50-kilometer (31-mile) radius, leveling infrastructure and causing mass casualties in populated areas.
However, scientists stress that the asteroid poses no extinction-level threat. “This is not a dinosaur-killer,” said Lindley Johnson, head of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, referencing the 10-kilometer-wide asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs. “But a 90-meter object could devastate a major city or trigger tsunamis if it strikes the ocean”.
Emergency Measures and JWST Observations
In response, NASA has secured rare permission to repurpose the James Webb Space Telescope, originally designed for deep-space exploration, to study 2024 YR4. The telescope’s infrared capabilities will help resolve uncertainties about the asteroid’s size and reflectivity, critical factors for assessing its destructive potential. Current estimates vary widely: a 40-meter asteroid would cause regional damage, while a 90-meter one could impact an area the size of a small country.
The JWST will conduct two critical observations in March and May 2025, timed to the asteroid’s peak brightness. Afterward, it will be too faint to track until 2028, leaving a narrow window to gather data. “Knowing its exact size will determine whether we need to deflect it or simply monitor its path,” explained an ESA spokesperson.
Global Coordination and Deflection Plans
NASA is collaborating with the European Space Agency (ESA), the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, and other IAWN members to prepare contingency plans. If deflection becomes necessary, options include kinetic impactors (smashing a spacecraft into the asteroid to alter its course) or gravity tractors (using a spacecraft’s gravitational pull to nudge it away). Such missions would require years of preparation, making timely data from the JWST crucial.
Public anxiety has spiked following the emergency announcement, but officials urge calm. “The odds are still overwhelmingly in humanity’s favor,” said Bill Harwood, CBS News space consultant. “Most asteroids like this pass harmlessly, and improved tracking gives us time to act”.
Historical Context and Ongoing Vigilance
Over 34,000 near-Earth asteroids have been cataloged, with 2,300 classified as “potentially hazardous.” While 2024 YR4 is the first to trigger an emergency response since NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office was established in 2016, similar alarms have been raised — and later dismissed — for objects like Apophis, which was ruled out as a threat after additional observations.
NASA’s automated Sentry system continues to update the asteroid’s risk profile in real time. Past cases show that impact probabilities often drop to zero as more data arrives. “This could very well be a false alarm,” said Johnson. “But we’re treating it seriously until we’re certain”.
The Road Ahead
For now, the world watches and waits. The JWST’s findings in mid-2025 will either ease fears or trigger a multi-billion-dollar international effort to avert disaster. Meanwhile, NASA advises the public to stay informed through official channels and avoid sensationalized claims. “We’re not in a Hollywood movie,” Harwood added. “But we’re also not taking any chances”.
As of February 12, 2025, the clock ticks toward 2032 — a date that could either fade into obscurity or mark a historic test of humanity’s ability to defend its home planet.
